I have a great respect for the Ukrainian people, many of whom are my friends. In my travels, I’ve found the people of Ukraine to be of kind heart and practical in nature. They are used to living a difficult life, and have the courage to overcome their hardships. Every Ukrainian I’ve ever met loves their country, and I don’t see any reason why they will stop fighting, as long as they have the resources and means to do so. The Ukrainian military has performed well above any expectation, and has inflicted great damage upon the Russian military. It is very likely that Russian military leaders did not expect Ukraine to put up such a dedicated, and effective resistance.
I also have a great respect for the Russian people, many of whom are also my friends. Like the Ukrainians, the Russian people are also of kind heart and practical in nature. The Russian people are very stoic and are also capable of enduring, and overcoming, great hardships. The Russians I know are very cautious about war, since they are intimately familiar with war’s gruesome consequences. Yet in my recent travels to Russia, I have also observed, what I can only describe as a “Cultural Momentum” among the Russian people. Russia is an ascending nation, and the Russian people have a great will to rise out of the ashes, and build a better future for themselves, now that they have thrown off the shackles of Communism. This is especially true of my Russian friends, who tend to be of younger generations.
Recently, President Biden has made public comments about “regime change” in Russia. Lindsey Graham has publicly called for the assassination of Putin on several occasions. Other American politicians have said similarly stupid things, calling for an escalation to the war in Ukraine, though these first two stand out the most in my mind. Additionally, videos have been circulating that allegedly depict Ukrainian soldiers committing war crimes against captured Russian soldiers. While many analysts claim these videos are fake, or that our politicians’ inflammatory statements are being taken out of context, that’s not actually what’s important.
What IS important is that these videos and statements are being used by Putin, to great effect, in swaying Russian (and Chinese) public opinion. When combined with sanctions that appear designed to hurt the Russian people (allegedly in hopes of causing them to turn against Putin), the actual result is that American leaders have thrown away any opportunity to peacefully negotiate a conclusion to the War in Ukraine. Putin no longer needs a quick victory, as he will have enough support to continue the war as long as Russia avoids any major defeats. Additionally, the Russian public will likely become more tolerant of Western accusations of war crimes committed by the Russian military.
It would seem to the Russian people, and any American who has been paying attention, that the real objective of the Biden Administration (and other NeoCon politicians) is to turn Ukraine into a proxy war between the USA and Russia, much like what we did to the Soviet Union with Afghanistan in the 1980’s. While the Ukrainians could likely fight such a proxy war indefinitely, provided they received the resources to do so, the damage done to the Ukrainian people would take many generations to heal. This is likely to create a long term animosity towards the American Government that would parallel the animosity created by the 1980’s proxy war in Afghanistan.
Many historians consider the arms race between the United States and Soviet Union, and the proxy war in Afghanistan, to have caused sufficient economic damage, that it lead to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. It’s likely that Biden, and the NeoCons, hope to create a similar proxy war in Ukraine, with the hopes of bringing down Putin and the current Russian government. I’m not sure this will work a second time, however, as the Russians are good at learning from their mistakes.
The Russian government appears to be resilient to the sanctions, as countries are now buying Russian products using the Russian Ruble instead of the US Dollar. This is supported by the fact that the Russian Ruble has regained most of it’s original value, that had been lost during the initial series of sanctions. It is also likely that China will financially support Russia, since China gains many benefits from the United States and Russia fighting with each other. This is especially true if the sanctions cause countries to stop doing international business in the US Dollar. This is supremely important because the US Dollar, being the world’s reserve currency, is what allows the America to print unlimited amounts of money, and debt finance our operations around the world. Losing the world reserve currency status of the US Dollar would effectively castrate American hegemony, which is why this has always been a primary goal of our global enemies.
As the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, I find it increasingly unlikely that either side will back down. This is especially true if the West continues to supply Ukraine, and if the East continues to do business with Russia. However, if we are to be honest with ourselves, it should be recognized that Russia is unlikely to have the ability to take Western Ukraine, especially Kiev or Lviv, unless Ukrainian resistance completely collapses. It should also be recognized that Ukraine is unlikely to have the ability to retake Eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces that remain in the East (especially the AZOV and other private armies of the Ukrainian Oligarchs) will eventually be destroyed by the Russians. I don’t see the Russian military collapsing at this point, however we could observe a series of Russian setbacks as they reorganize their logistics for an extended campaign.
We will soon reach an inflection point in this war, however, that could provide an opportunity for peace. At some point in the coming weeks or months, it is likely that the Russian military will destroy the private armies in Eastern Ukraine. These private armies are generally considered to be the NAZI’s that Putin was referring to in his justification for the “Special Military Action” in Ukraine. These private armies are also generally considered, by the Russians, to be responsible for the ethnic Russian civilian casualties in Eastern Ukraine during the Ukrainian Civil War, prior to the recent Russian Invasion.
This would be Putin’s best opportunity to exit from the war, while also being able to claim victory to his people, as Putin would have then achieved his originally stated goals. Ukraine currently has no strategic offensive capabilities that could threaten the Russian homeland. Russian forces effectively control the “Separatist Regions” of the Donbas. Finally, with the destruction of AZOV and other private armies in the East, Putin could claim that he has removed the NAZI’s from Ukraine. There would effectively be nothing left for Putin to achieve without demonstrating to the Russian people that conquest was always his real objective.
Likewise, if he’s looking for an exit strategy, this would be a good opportunity for Zelenskyy to negotiate peace. Zelenskyy could claim that he successfully defended Ukraine from the Russian invaders. Additionally, the loss of the private armies in the East would reduce the power and influence of the Ukrainian Oligarchs, which would give Zelenskyy a greater ability to implement his desired reforms. And perhaps this has been the plan all along, since it’s always appeared that the Ukrainian military did not coordinate with the Oligarchs’ private armies in the East, and that the two forces were fighting independently of one another. Additionally, Ukraine has never really held solid control over the Donbas since the civil war started in 2014.
It’s possible, however, that neither leader is looking for an exit ramp. The Ukrainian people are passionate about their country and have a strong will to fight. Additionally, the Russians have been threatened with regime change and economic destruction by the West, and their resolve is also strengthening. But a long war brings with it many risks. Can Russia maintain its economy while conducting a long term war in Ukraine? They probably can... And if the West intends to destroy Russia anyway, why wouldn’t Russia just colonize Ukraine to capture the resources and bolster the Russian economy?
Also, America has a long history of diplomatic blunders that create new enemies for us to fight, and this could just be the latest episode of American war profiteering. There’s a lot of money to be made for the American defense industry by providing weapons for Ukraine to fight a war that could have been easily prevented. A lot of people have gotten very rich over the years, selling weapons to fight unnecessary wars.
The American people are learning how to follow the money, however, and this is an election year. Biden and the NeoCons are firmly committed to funding a long term war in Ukraine with the hopes of toppling the Russian government... But what happens if enough Americans wake up to our politicians corrupt financial dealings with Ukraine, and start voting these guys out of office in 2022 and 2024? Will Zelenskyy risk a long term war with Russia, knowing that control of the American government could change hands so quickly?
There currently exists, a window of opportunity to negotiate a peaceful conclusion to the war in Ukraine. Because of Russian military difficulties, Ukraine might even negotiate favorable terms... But this opportunity will not last forever. If American politicians continue their reckless rhetoric, and the war continues to escalate, it will be the Ukrainian people who suffer the most… But peace was probably never the Biden plan anyway. It has always been more profitable for the American ruling elites to start new wars, in far away countries, where the consequences will never affect them.
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